Ridiculous Players: Jose Bautista

Your pick.

You may have noticed Jose Bautista when he came to Target field for a weekend series and hit 5 home runs. In fact, I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for his Sunday performance, where he went 3 for 5 with 3 home runs. The first one, he clobbered into the left field seats. And it looked easy. The second home run wasn’t even in the strike zone, but Bautista hooked the inside pitch just inside the left field foul pole.

Digressing for a moment, last year a lot of pundits pointed out that Bautista hit almost all of his home runs to left; he was a dead pull hitter. For good measure, then, Bautista flared his last home run just over the wall in right field. Yes, a flare. Like how Denard Span can get hits by flaring the ball over the shortstops head. Or how a reasonable power hitter like Pat Burrell will hit a flare that makes the left fielder come in a few steps for the out. But Jose Bautista is so locked in right now, and swinging with so much power, his flares are home runs.

The Twins have 6 home runs at Target field this year. Bautista has 5 in three games.

The Twins have hit 18 home runs all season. Bautista has 16, which is ahead of his 2010 pace, when he hit a league leading 54. A 2010 that everyone with sense assumed had to be a fluke to some degree. Most experts in predicting what “Joey Bats” would do for 2011, tried to find a middle ground in not minimizing Bautista’s amazing performance from 2010, but making sure not to jump on board for a repeat. They respectfully predicted a .250 batting average, with good plate discipline and perhaps 30 home runs.

Which is basically taking the average production of Bautista from 2004-August of 2009, and the Bautista from September 2009-2010. The first iteration had a strong sim score with Jim Hickman, who had a journeyman career with the Cubs, Mets and Dodgers in the 60’s and 70’s. Hickman played a couple positions, and displayed above average plate discipline, some power, and a .250 batting average. That was Bautista. Prior to 2010, he had received one season with 600 PA’s. He hit .254/.339/.414 for those 2007 Pirates, similar to his .235/.335/.420 2006, and his .238/.313/.405 2008. He did average 15 home runs during those years, so as a utility player with pop he wasn’t useless. In fact, he probably would have secured major league contracts for years to come.

But then on September 7^th, 2009, Bautista apparently got tired of being a plus bat, minus field utility player. So, working with Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, Bautista began starting his swing earlier. He changed his hand position as well, but mostly he stopped swinging defensively, which was something he tended to do, according to scouts.

I don’t know, of course, but it seems like Bautista’s talent was always there, but he suffered from David Ortiz syndrome. The tragic illness present mostly in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, and Pittsburgh, that causes hitters with great power and great eyes at the plate to, “Hit the ball the other way” and to, “Grind out good at bats even if it means letting a meatball go by on 3-1.” But like Ortiz, Bautista found that loading up and being ready to hit the crap out of the ball, didn’t mean he had to swing. He hit 10 home runs from that point on in 111 at bats.

Then 2010 came along, and Bautista hit 54 homers, adjusting to pitchers as the year wore on and actually being more productive in the second half of the season. Even after pitchers had realized that, hey, this guy hit 24 home runs in the first half, we should probably notice, Bautista hits 30 in the second half in 38 fewer at bats with a better average OPB and SLG. But overall he did hit just .260 and all but one of his home runs went to left field.

Not content to be another Willie McCovey or Mike Schmidt, Bautista has this year decided to be Barry Bonds. Crazy, huh? But as it stands, Bautista’s current 277 OPS+ is better than the record set by Bonds in 2002 of 268. Better than Babe Ruth’s best of 255. Or Ted Williams best of 234, Jeff Bagwell’s 213, Albert Pujols’ 190, or Alex Rodriguez’s 176. Yes Bautista could let his OPS+ drop 100 points and equal A-Rod’s best offensive season ever.

And again, Bautista was considered a utility player prior to 2010. As in, someone who got into the lineup based on defensive versatility, and not offensive production. A guy that doesn’t hit well enough to be a regular player, but who could fill in for enough guys at other positions to get 400 plate appearances during a season. Guys such as Nick Punto, Aaron Miles, and John McDonald fit this mold. Those three players do not just change their swing and become the best hitter in baseball. Except that’s exactly what Jose Bautista has done.

But hey it’s mid-May. He won’t keep this up forever. And surely some team has figured out how to get him out. Surely he has some weakness.

Vs Lefties: .409/.552/1.045

Vs. Righties: .361/.508/.804

Home: .429/.571/1.095

Away: .338/.485/.714

Batting average on balls in play: .333, which is a bit above average, but not exactly Josh Hamilton’s 2010 (Bautista had a BABIP of .233 that year to Hamilton’s .390, all things equal who should have been MVP?)

Day games: .278/.418/.815

Night games: .446/.591/.877

His worst line against any opponent: Against Boston he holds a line of .217/.333/.391 with only one home run.

His best line against an opponent: Against the East leading Rays, Bautista is hitting .750/.846/2.250 with 3 home runs. Yes, that’s a slugging percentage at 2.250, which in layman’s terms means that on any given plate appearance, Bautista will, on average, end up about a quarter of the way between 2^nd and 3^rd base.

Against the Twins, he’s hitting .480/.581/1.360 with seven home runs.

Players go into slumps. What I’m wondering though, is if Bautista slumps mean he goes .250/.400/.500 for a week with two home runs. It remains to be seen, of course, but if Bautista maintains 80% of his current pace throughout the year, we’re in for a season only Ruth and Bonds could ever claim.

Which is pretty ridiculous.

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Something Encouraging?

The Twins could not have played worse, nor endured worse fortune during the first month of the season. They were outscored by 60+ runs. That is far and away the worst differential in the majors. Morneau, Mauer, Young, Cuddyer, Valencia, Casilla, Thome whoever was playing 2^nd, all TERRIBLE. Liriano has been dreadful, and even his no hitter was pretty pathetic as far as no hitters go.

Quietly, though, some players are really thriving. I am referring to Kubel, Span, Baker, Duensing, and Perkins. Only Duensing enjoyed a quality 2010 season, but like the other four, was a pretty big question mark going into 2011.

But now these past few games have actually been, what’s the word, encouraging? Not that anyone is really hitting, but the team has won three in a row, and this most recent game against Boston was almost, need another word here, exciting?

Trevor Plouffe comes up and homers in his first at bat. Did he get pissed at his poor spring and just start hacking? Maybe, and this is a long shot, he could be a spark plug. He ends up stealing a base, scores three runs, and takes a walk.

Scott Baker pitched a real gem, and now has a 2.97 ERA to go with his usual solid K/BB ratio. He’s still allowing home runs, but not as many hits, and he’s striking out more batters. He says he’s starting to feel healthy, could this be a big year for Bake? If so, he is a legit #2 starter.

Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless 9^th, and has been much more stable since his move out of the closer’s role. A role Matt Capps has handled pretty well.

Most importantly, though, the team scored nine runs against a good team! Does success against a knuckleballer indicate success going forward? Eh, that’s a bit murky. But the fact remains, Liriano threw a no hitter, and the team has won the next two games. And scored nine runs in one. Young should come back soon, Mauer shortly after that (And he is after all, the team’s most stable bat when in the lineup). If Plouffe proves he belongs, and puts up fair power numbers with average defense, Liriano jumps off his performance against Chicago, Nathan and Morneau shake off the rust and become forces again (Not to previous levels, but maybe 80% of those levels), and perhaps Nishioka comes back All of a sudden this is a team to watch for as a bigtime comeback story.

Say what you will of Ron Gardenhire, no manager in the game gets his team on track better after bad stretches.

It’s not a tough division. The Indians are for real, but won’t maintain their current pace. The team with the most talent in the division currently sits behind the Twins in the standings. If the Tigers don’t take off, I would say 85 games could win this division.

A lot of things must go right for the Twins to reach that level. But a ton of things have had to go wrong for them to be where they are right now. Just wouldn’t put it past them, is all I’m saying.