Ridiculous Players: Jose Bautista
Your pick.
You may have noticed Jose Bautista when he came to Target field for a weekend series and hit 5 home runs. In fact, I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for his Sunday performance, where he went 3 for 5 with 3 home runs. The first one, he clobbered into the left field seats. And it looked easy. The second home run wasn’t even in the strike zone, but Bautista hooked the inside pitch just inside the left field foul pole.
Digressing for a moment, last year a lot of pundits pointed out that Bautista hit almost all of his home runs to left; he was a dead pull hitter. For good measure, then, Bautista flared his last home run just over the wall in right field. Yes, a flare. Like how Denard Span can get hits by flaring the ball over the shortstops head. Or how a reasonable power hitter like Pat Burrell will hit a flare that makes the left fielder come in a few steps for the out. But Jose Bautista is so locked in right now, and swinging with so much power, his flares are home runs.
The Twins have 6 home runs at Target field this year. Bautista has 5 in three games.
The Twins have hit 18 home runs all season. Bautista has 16, which is ahead of his 2010 pace, when he hit a league leading 54. A 2010 that everyone with sense assumed had to be a fluke to some degree. Most experts in predicting what “Joey Bats” would do for 2011, tried to find a middle ground in not minimizing Bautista’s amazing performance from 2010, but making sure not to jump on board for a repeat. They respectfully predicted a .250 batting average, with good plate discipline and perhaps 30 home runs.
Which is basically taking the average production of Bautista from 2004-August of 2009, and the Bautista from September 2009-2010. The first iteration had a strong sim score with Jim Hickman, who had a journeyman career with the Cubs, Mets and Dodgers in the 60′s and 70′s. Hickman played a couple positions, and displayed above average plate discipline, some power, and a .250 batting average. That was Bautista. Prior to 2010, he had received one season with 600 PA’s. He hit .254/.339/.414 for those 2007 Pirates, similar to his .235/.335/.420 2006, and his .238/.313/.405 2008. He did average 15 home runs during those years, so as a utility player with pop he wasn’t useless. In fact, he probably would have secured major league contracts for years to come.
But then on September 7th, 2009, Bautista apparently got tired of being a plus bat, minus field utility player. So, working with Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, Bautista began starting his swing earlier. He changed his hand position as well, but mostly he stopped swinging defensively, which was something he tended to do, according to scouts.
I don’t know, of course, but it seems like Bautista’s talent was always there, but he suffered from David Ortiz syndrome. The tragic illness present mostly in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, and Pittsburgh, that causes hitters with great power and great eyes at the plate to, “Hit the ball the other way” and to, “Grind out good at bats even if it means letting a meatball go by on 3-1.” But like Ortiz, Bautista found that loading up and being ready to hit the crap out of the ball, didn’t mean he had to swing. He hit 10 home runs from that point on in 111 at bats.
Then 2010 came along, and Bautista hit 54 homers, adjusting to pitchers as the year wore on and actually being more productive in the second half of the season. Even after pitchers had realized that, hey, this guy hit 24 home runs in the first half, we should probably notice, Bautista hits 30 in the second half in 38 fewer at bats with a better average OPB and SLG. But overall he did hit just .260 and all but one of his home runs went to left field.
Not content to be another Willie McCovey or Mike Schmidt, Bautista has this year decided to be Barry Bonds. Crazy, huh? But as it stands, Bautista’s current 277 OPS+ is better than the record set by Bonds in 2002 of 268. Better than Babe Ruth’s best of 255. Or Ted Williams best of 234, Jeff Bagwell’s 213, Albert Pujols’ 190, or Alex Rodriguez’s 176. Yes Bautista could let his OPS+ drop 100 points and equal A-Rod’s best offensive season ever.
And again, Bautista was considered a utility player prior to 2010. As in, someone who got into the lineup based on defensive versatility, and not offensive production. A guy that doesn’t hit well enough to be a regular player, but who could fill in for enough guys at other positions to get 400 plate appearances during a season. Guys such as Nick Punto, Aaron Miles, and John McDonald fit this mold. Those three players do not just change their swing and become the best hitter in baseball. Except that’s exactly what Jose Bautista has done.
But hey it’s mid-May. He won’t keep this up forever. And surely some team has figured out how to get him out. Surely he has some weakness.
Vs Lefties: .409/.552/1.045
Vs. Righties: .361/.508/.804
Home: .429/.571/1.095
Away: .338/.485/.714
Batting average on balls in play: .333, which is a bit above average, but not exactly Josh Hamilton’s 2010 (Bautista had a BABIP of .233 that year to Hamilton’s .390, all things equal who should have been MVP?)
Day games: .278/.418/.815
Night games: .446/.591/.877
His worst line against any opponent: Against Boston he holds a line of .217/.333/.391 with only one home run.
His best line against an opponent: Against the East leading Rays, Bautista is hitting .750/.846/2.250 with 3 home runs. Yes, that’s a slugging percentage at 2.250, which in layman’s terms means that on any given plate appearance, Bautista will, on average, end up about a quarter of the way between 2nd and 3rd base.
Against the Twins, he’s hitting .480/.581/1.360 with seven home runs.
Players go into slumps. What I’m wondering though, is if Bautista slumps mean he goes .250/.400/.500 for a week with two home runs. It remains to be seen, of course, but if Bautista maintains 80% of his current pace throughout the year, we’re in for a season only Ruth and Bonds could ever claim.
Which is pretty ridiculous.
P.S http://steroids-and-baseball.com/ READ IT.
Something Encouraging?
The Twins could not have played worse, nor endured worse fortune during the first month of the season. They were outscored by 60+ runs. That is far and away the worst differential in the majors. Morneau, Mauer, Young, Cuddyer, Valencia, Casilla, Thome whoever was playing 2nd, all TERRIBLE. Liriano has been dreadful, and even his no hitter was pretty pathetic as far as no hitters go.
Quietly, though, some players are really thriving. I am referring to Kubel, Span, Baker, Duensing, and Perkins. Only Duensing enjoyed a quality 2010 season, but like the other four, was a pretty big question mark going into 2011.
But now these past few games have actually been, what’s the word, encouraging? Not that anyone is really hitting, but the team has won three in a row, and this most recent game against Boston was almost, need another word here, exciting?
Trevor Plouffe comes up and homers in his first at bat. Did he get pissed at his poor spring and just start hacking? Maybe, and this is a long shot, he could be a spark plug. He ends up stealing a base, scores three runs, and takes a walk.
Scott Baker pitched a real gem, and now has a 2.97 ERA to go with his usual solid K/BB ratio. He’s still allowing home runs, but not as many hits, and he’s striking out more batters. He says he’s starting to feel healthy, could this be a big year for Bake? If so, he is a legit #2 starter.
Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless 9th, and has been much more stable since his move out of the closer’s role. A role Matt Capps has handled pretty well.
Most importantly, though, the team scored nine runs against a good team! Does success against a knuckleballer indicate success going forward? Eh, that’s a bit murky. But the fact remains, Liriano threw a no hitter, and the team has won the next two games. And scored nine runs in one. Young should come back soon, Mauer shortly after that (And he is after all, the team’s most stable bat when in the lineup). If Plouffe proves he belongs, and puts up fair power numbers with average defense, Liriano jumps off his performance against Chicago, Nathan and Morneau shake off the rust and become forces again (Not to previous levels, but maybe 80% of those levels), and perhaps Nishioka comes back All of a sudden this is a team to watch for as a bigtime comeback story.
Say what you will of Ron Gardenhire, no manager in the game gets his team on track better after bad stretches.
It’s not a tough division. The Indians are for real, but won’t maintain their current pace. The team with the most talent in the division currently sits behind the Twins in the standings. If the Tigers don’t take off, I would say 85 games could win this division.
A lot of things must go right for the Twins to reach that level. But a ton of things have had to go wrong for them to be where they are right now. Just wouldn’t put it past them, is all I’m saying.
Jottings. And Panic?
Hey everyone, guess what time it is! It’s time for…
Joe Mauer’s early season mystery injury!!
The aftermath of this slide oughta keep me out 5-7 games at least three times this year.
Looking back, there’s been:
The stress fracture! Some people claimed at the time that a stress fracture isn’t even possible.
The quad pull! An injury I’ve never seen come from anyone else’s quad.
The heel bruise! Seriously! Sprain an ankle, pull a hammy, something that other players can relate to!
And now Bilateral leg weakness!!
Seriously, Joe Mauer would never have to deal with skepticism over his durability if he actually managed to HAVE REAL INJURIES, and not ones that need to be scrupulously diagnosed by a misanthropic TV doctor.
Ive got it! All the Head & Shoulders he uses causes him to become a demon serial murderer every few months! Good thing this unrelated argument with Wilson has allowed me to see the truth.
In other news, our hometown team has gotten off to an awful start. A 4-8 record and a team slugging percentage under .300. Every player not named Kubel and Span has not stumbled out of the gates, but suffered a collective stroke while standing at the gates, and fallen on their collective faces in a pile of drool and shame.
In Spring Training, it was speculated that Alexi Casilla needed a good start to the season to get a good hold of his shortstop job. But can you really hate on the guy for batting .160 when what he’s been doing has been pretty standard throughout the lineup?
To be fair, most of the guys have gotten their batting averages over .200, which seemed like a novel goal a week ago. But as far as home runs are concerned, we have Valencia, Thome and Span with one apiece. That’s it. Did all the ‘adjusting to Target Field so we’re not going to hit home runs’ talk go to everyone’s head?*
*I do like that Morneau has five doubles, however. His results aren’t there, but his performance is above the threshold where we could say his head injury is causing him problems.
But the offense won’t suck forever. Young and Cuddyer are flawed hitters, but they’re going to OPS at least .780 between them. Not .500. Casilla might be bad, but he’s not OPS .368 bad.
It could be worse, in other words. Span seems to have solved his mechanical problems, and Kubel is avoiding his early season mailaise from years past. Carl Pavano has rebounded very nicely from his opening day massacre. Blackburn has been solid, Duensing hasn’t provided much to be worried about, and Baker hasn’t imploded (Though he hasn’t exactly been encouraging). Liriano is the one to be concerned with. Walking guys like crazy, then trying to not walk guys and getting lit up by Kansas City. It will be interesting, and perhaps pivotal, to see what he does in his next trip.
The bullpen has been pretty decent (Despite managing to blow two saves in one game today), considering it was supposed to be the glaring weak spot on the team. Everyone knows signing Dusty Hughes was dumb, but when he’s non tendered in a few weeks maybe we’ll get to see what Jim Hoey can do.
Now, looking around the league, there are some interesting tidbits to be found:
Well at least the fact that Im always injured hides that fact that I dont have any plate discipline and generate most of my power from playing in extreme hitters parks.
- Josh Hamilton and J.J. Hardy are fragile and should be handled with care. If I were the Rangers, I’d put Hamilton on the 60 DL, and activate him in September. Does past drug abuse contribute to having easily broken bones and easily pulled muscles? Probably not. But he is going to continue to get hurt, I will say that. My theory, not that anyone cares, is that players who get injured a lot are just worse at falling down than other players. Cal Ripken was really good at falling down. J.D. Drew probably isn’t. Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera are both really bad Royals players, and probably haven’t done their teams much of a service by being good at falling down and never getting hurt. Bob Sanders of the Indianapolis Colts is terrible at falling down. The man can’t avoid breaking something if you leave him unsupervised for ten minutes.
They say guys who get hurt just play harder than everyone else, they take more risks. I guess that’s probably true with Carlos Gomez. He puts his body in danger like he’s forgotten what gravity is. I seriously worry about him, sometimes. But I’m pretty sure most players play the game hard look at Francouer. Everyone in the game says no one plays harder. And he’s never on the DL. David Wright supposedly plays really hard; he’s rarely hurt.
You know that little kid back in elementary school who wanted to be a stunt man when he grew up? He would jump around doing crazy shit and would never get hurt? That kid grows up to be Randy Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Jon Garland (Actually Jonny’s finally on the DL this year), Ichiro, Adam Dunn. The kid who’s constantly on crutches from falling off his bed, or landing awkwardly playing hop scotch? He grows up to be Howie Kendrick, or Larry Walker, or Marcus Giles, Chase Utley, Rafael Furcal, Aramis Ramirez.
Freak injuries do happen. A pitcher is going to burn his finger grilling steak this year and miss two starts. But if Howie Kendrick and O-Cab collide and both end up on the ground, I bet you 9 times out of 10, O-Cab wins.
Ya know its true.
The most interesting thing going on so far has been the 10-2 Rockies, and more specifically, Troy Tulowitzki. He’s slugging .909 so far with seven home runs, pretty much carrying the entire offense, similar to his performance last September. At this point, is there a more valuable player in the game? The man hits like a superstar first baseman while playing legitimately gold glove defense at shortstop. Although I’m kind of on the fence about his falling ability…
The Rays and the Red Sox are not playing good ball, but I like the Sox chances to rebound a lot better. They have depth at every position except catcher, and like the Twins, have pretty much every hitter starting out cold. When you have Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew in your lineup on a daily basis, eventually the runs will come. If they, by some crazy circumstance, don’t come, at least you have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey to pick up the slack. And then Jon Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks for an extra layer of security.
If you’re the Rays, you have good starting pitching, but after that you’re looking at a lot of reliance on B.J Upton and Ben Zobrist to play to the potential they showed in one of their seasons, and Evan Longoria to handle everything else. John Jaso is good when he doesn’t have to be good. Same goes for Dan Johnson and Reid Brignac. Scoring runs is going to be a problem, and Desmond Jennings isn’t going to make it go away. And having Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth holding down the fort isn’t a great idea, either. Jake McGee is a shiny alternative, but if you saw him try to throw breaking balls to Kubel and Valencia today, you’ll agree he’s not a shutdown closer yet.
Wait a minute. Thats Vernon Wells, not zombie Duke Snider... That Greek bastard lied to me.
A few things are going as expected. Namely that the Phillies won’t give up a lot of runs, and that the Rangers have a really deep offense. As far as surprises, I’d say the Orioles are a little better than what they’re given credit for. As I write this they have lost four in a row, but with Zach Britton looking like a potential phenom, and Brian Matusz on the mend, all of a sudden their offseason pickups of Guerrero, Reynolds, Lee and Hardy don’t look so frivolous and prospect blocking. I mean, offensively, where are their holes? Adam Jones still has potential, Markakis = Paul O’Neil?, Brian Roberts can still play, and Wieters might just bust out. Oh, and Luke Scott can OPS .900 without anyone noticing. Who the hell knows?
I also like the Blue Jays. Not much defense, but a powerful offense once their middle of the order guys (Lind, Hill, Encarnacion) start heating up. Yes, I am a Jose Bautista believer. And they have some pitching depth, as well. Not to mention payroll flexibility that was apprehended right out of Tony Reagins’ pocket.
Basically the whole AL East is worth watching, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays were the ones to finish 5th.
AL Central Evaluations
The first week of the season is past and I thought I’d trot out some predictions for the Central. A lot of people seem to think it will be a race between the Sox, Twins, and Tigers. But I think it’s ridiculous to ever expect anything from the Tigers beyond 70 wins.
Kansas City:
Objects on mound may be smaller than they appear
Now it normally is very foolish to be high on the Royals in any legitimate way. Especially this early in the season. But, and I will emphasize that I place no emphasis on their 6-3 start to the season, this team doesn’t even look that bad. The most impressive thing about them is their bullpen. Joakim Soria at the back is always a wonderful thing. But then look at the supporting cast: Robinson Tejeda, someone with a big arm and great K numbers wherever he’s pitched, now healthy and in the bullpen. I’m bullish on guys who have what is considered to be good stuff, have had spotty but sometimes legitimate success as a starter, and who are put into bullpen roles. He could have a big year. Then you have Tim Collins the 5’7″ lefty, who has had a brilliant minor league career, especially K wise, and who is getting a shot in the bullpen. So far he’s pitched 4+ innings with 7 K’s and hasn’t given up a run. I wouldn’t doubt he’ll take his lumps, but given his minor league track record (329 K’s in 223 innings, 2.26 ERA) I’d say he has a good shot to be a force. Jeremy Jeffress is considered to be the dark horse centerpiece of the Greinke trade. Which means he’s been hurt a lot, but when healthy has put up big K numbers as well. He’s been given a shot in the pen to start out the year and I wouldn’t doubt he succeeds in the low leverage situations he gets put in. Then you have Sean O’Sullivan, a former Angels starting prospect turned mop up KC reliever. Never bet against someone who an organization was formerly high on as a starter, having success as a reliever.
In other words, their pen isn’t relying on Dusty Hughes’ in high leverage situations.
Starting-wise, the tale is a little more grim. Jeff Francis has looked good so far, and he had an underrated 2010, but he’s an average #2/good #3 at best. Luke Hochevar is the ‘ace.’ No comment. Bruce Chen was pretty good last year, KC brought him back, and I wouldn’t doubt he could be a decent fourth starter. He could also remember that he’s Bruce Chen. And then there’s Kyle Davies. Poor, unfortunate Kyle Davies. But at least this year KC has a decent, young bridge to Soria even if the starter only goes 5. A lot will ride on the offense, however.
As for the offense, we have Billy Butler and a bunch of questions. Butler himself has to answer the question of whether he’s gonna be Lyle Overbay or Edgar Martinez. Alex Gordan has looked real good so far, which is encouraging, and there is still a ton of potential in his bat if he can keep his success going. Kila Ka’aihue could be a poor man’s Adam Dunn. The offseason additions of Melky and Frenchie could conceivably be league average, though that is a bit of a stretch. Alcides Escobar is great with the glove, but is he Rey Ordonez or Jose Reyes with the bat? He’s at least better than Tony Pena Jr.
Chris Getz has a little on base ability, Mike Aviles has shown he can actually be a 4-5 win player if everything goes right, and Wilson Betemit could be the second or third best hitter on the team if given a shot.
Then there’s Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer waiting in the wings at triple A.
A flawed team, but a lot of potential for improvement, and an incredible farm system to back it up.
Prediction: Third place. 82-80
Cleveland:
Don't worry Cleveland, I'll give you 13 home runs, 56 RBI and only 3 more shoulder surgeries
Like KC, the Indians have gotten off to a hot start. As of this writing, they have won seven games in a row. But where is this production coming from? Not where you want it to. Orlando Cabrera has started out hot, Asdrubal Cabrera somehow has 3 home runs, fill in Jack Hannahan has an .891 OPS, and Travis Hafner is being his usual tease self. Eventually, this team will realize it’s starting pitching is pretty bad, and that unless Matt LaPorta busts out no one on this team will hit more than 20 home runs. I like the bullpen, however, and almost want to pick Cleveland over Detroit, but no matter how much you want something to be true, sometimes you have to face that it can’t happen.
Prediction: Fifth place. 75-87
Detroit:
I'm pretty sure I beat this guy up in middle school. But I'd still take him over Tolbert.
I really dislike the Tigers. Because you can usually take it to the bank that no one on their team will ever build off a good year. That’s why guys like Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge and even Justin Verlander tend to fluctuate between serviceable, good and awesome and non tender material. Brennan Boesch is not the answer. Austin Jackson is DEFINITELY not the answer (I’ve never seen a position player succeed with his MAGNITUDE of terrible peripherals). Magglio is already hurt, Jhonny Peralta is just like Raburn and Inge, you don’t know if he’ll OPS .650 or .850. Will Rhymes, Alex Avila? Please. Oh, and Brad Thomas makes this team AGAIN? Yeah it’s cute that he throws left handed, but at some point, don’t you have to accept that there is no better definition of batting practice pitcher in the GAME?
Rick Porcello can’t strike guys out, Brad Penny might have a good first half, but don’t bet on him finishing with an ERA under 4.50. Not away from the NL. Scherzer and Verlander I like at the top, and Valverde and Benoit are a good tandem at the back. And Cabrera and Martinez will dutifully carry most of the offense. But this team is built to underachieve; they always do.
Prediction: 4th place. 77-85
Minnesota:
I am the optimist among optimists. But I also tend to believe in narratives. Anything besides logic for me. In Minnesota, if our team has a good year, dominant year, first place in our conference type year, the next year will be disappointing. Look at the 99 and 2010 Vikings, the 04-05 Wolves, the 07 Twins.
The 2011 Twins. On paper, this is still a good team. Joe Mauer can have as bad an April as he wants, when it’s said and done you’ve got an .860 OPS from your catcher. And if he gets hot for an extended period of time, like during the summers of ’06 and ’09, that might rise to .960. I think Morneau will hit, even if it takes him a minute to get into the groove. Young and Kubel are not without their flaws, but they both hit the ball hard enough that at least one figures to have a good year offensively. Cuddyer probably won’t be as bad as last year. Thome can hopefully hit a few home runs, though I’ll take the under on him getting to 600 this year. Casilla, Tolbert, Hughes, Nishioka when he gets back are all unfortunate options. And then I think about how WE TRADED J.J HARDY FOR UNPROVEN ‘POWER’ BULLPEN ARMS AND THEN TRADED BILLY BULLOCK FOR A 5TH STARTER WE ALREADY HAD UNDER TEAM CONTROL*.
*I would advise Bill Smith to stick to trading with organizations that don’t make intelligent decisions. Which means no Rays, no Braves, no Red Sox, no A’s, and not even the Orioles anymore (Apparently). Just stick to exploiting Seattle, Kansas City, Philadelphia (Oh yes that team is so fucked in 3-5 years), Florida, Houston, the Cubs and the L.A teams.
But if Liriano continues to struggle with his control, Pavano takes a step back, Baker loses that one grain of velocity that determines whether hitters will be late on his fastball or crush it, and Duensing falls into what his FIP and xFIP said he would always do, then we have problems. Because we have Dusty Hughes in our bullpen.
In summary, good offense, questionable starting pitching, average at best bullpen. I would say it’s an 85 win team at this point. And who knows who is going to get hurt.
Prediction: 2nd place. 86-76
Chicago:
You know I hate to do this, but where is there a weakness on this team? Their offense will be good. It might be great. Their starting pitching is deep. It might be really really deep. Their bullpen is great. It might really start to piss me off in about 5 months.
Oh hello, postseason
Carlos Quentin looks good, Konerko can’t fall too far, Dunn is Dunn and definitely not done (If there wasn’t this misguided notion that since Dunn is sarcastic and goofy => he hates baseball, could he see some hall of fame support with 4-5 more good seasons?), Rios is the sort of player I think plays better when his team is contending, Beckham has nowhere to go but up, Danks and Floyd are like poor people’s Smoltz and Glavine, Peavy will come back presumably, Buehrle will likely remain solid, Sale Santos and Thornton are a really good bullpen trio who also serve to keep Jesse Crain in the 6th and 7th innings, where he belongs (As Twins fans know. Nothing worse than an 8th inning Crain-wreck). There are simply too many good players on this team. It would take a rash of injuries for them to not win 90 games, in my estimation.
Prediction: 1st place. 94-68
I feel good about these predictions. My particular biases may have taken 4-5 wins from the Tigers and added them to the Twins and Royals, I will admit.
