Twins Shed Talent to Improve Roster
Terry Ryan can admit when he’s made a mistake. But he knows that when the chips are down, sometimes it’s better to retool with some brand name mediocrity.
After signing pull hitter Josh Willingham in the offseason and hoping for a much needed veteran presence in the clubhouse, what the Twins got was an aging slugger who had never heard of right field, hadn’t laid a sacrifice down in years, and was only concerned with padding his stats, hitting 19 home runs, 16 of which were of the selfish variety.
Willingham thinking of words with “I” in them.
But Ryan has been here before, acquiring such luminaries as Drew Butera and Dustin Martin in a deadline deal in 2007. And on Friday he pulled off a trade that, while it has its skeptics among the blogger aristocracy, is a slam dunk of deadline craftiness; classic Ryan. He put Willingham and control-challenged “thrower” prospect Hudson Boyd into a package for Jerry Hairston Jr., Elian Herrera, and pitcher Scott Elbert, now former Dodgers. What the Twins gave up were two one dimensional players, and what they got in return was a gift basket of speed and flexibility, and with Elbert an arm they can groom to be decent number 3 or 4 starter.
“We like Elbert a lot, he’s a guy we’ve had our eye on, “ Explained skipper Ron Gardenhire. “He’s a kid with a good arm, he can hump it up to 92, but what we really like is his approach, and his ‘here it is come get it,’ strike one mentality.”
“He’s had a lot of years in the minor leagues, so we know he’s a gamer who doesn’t take anything for granted,” Continued Gardenhire, “So we figured, why not give him a chance to fail at the big league level in front of paying fans?”
Herrera was another wise find. After superstar/diva Matt Kemp went down with an injury in early May, Herrera stepped in and sparked the offense for 4 games.
“That’s leadership, plain and simple,” explained recently benched third baseman Trevor Plouffe. “When Kemp went down, you were like, ‘man they can’t recover from this,’ but then Herrera stepped in and really softened the blow for a few dozen hours. And look at his team, they’ve been on a steady descent since then and are still within shouting distance of the wild card.”
Plouffe added with a chuckle, “That’s what we play the game for.”
Perhaps the most tantalizing prospect in the deal is wunderkind Jerry Hairston, who has treated Dodger fans to a dose of his oozing potential from twelve years ago.
“We like him at the plate. He’s patient, sometimes too patient, but unlike an [Adam] Dunn type player, he takes his walks but also puts the ball in play without striking out a bunch,” said Gardenhire.
“We want the ball hit on the ground because striking out is a rally killer, hit it somewhere and balls have a way of finding holes.”
“Yeah we definitely need more contact type hitters,” said Joe Mauer, who currently leads the major leagues with 16 double play grounders. “Put it in play, things happen, strike out and you’ll be kicking yourself back to the dugout wondering what kind of spectacular double play you could have just hit into.”
Some critics have been quick to point out Hairston’s lack of power. Gardenhire disagrees.
“We know he can hit one out, he’s had some years with decent power numbers, such as in 2009 and 10 (When Hairston socked 20 longballs combined), but he knows what he’s here to do is play different positions, move the runners over and maybe if the date is July 29th, and we’re facing a lefty and there’s a runner on first with 1 out and we’re down by seven, he can maybe send a hanger over into the bullpen.”
“Well hopefully not the bullpen of the opposing team. Showing people up isn’t Twins baseball.”
Meanwhile, Willingham and Boyd mull their lost opportunities.
“The Dodgers have a decent team,” said Willingham while stabbing himself in the neck with a ballpoint pen.
Boyd sees an opportunity for a fresh start: “I can throw 99, but don’t tell them I told you that. What was the question?”
Meanwhile the Twins hope the revamped roster will lead to some momentum in the standings.
“You gotta wait and see, there’s a lot of baseball to be played at an intentional disadvantage,” said a straight faced Ryan.
Twins fans can hardly wait.
Ridiculous Players: Jose Bautista
Your pick.
You may have noticed Jose Bautista when he came to Target field for a weekend series and hit 5 home runs. In fact, I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for his Sunday performance, where he went 3 for 5 with 3 home runs. The first one, he clobbered into the left field seats. And it looked easy. The second home run wasn’t even in the strike zone, but Bautista hooked the inside pitch just inside the left field foul pole.
Digressing for a moment, last year a lot of pundits pointed out that Bautista hit almost all of his home runs to left; he was a dead pull hitter. For good measure, then, Bautista flared his last home run just over the wall in right field. Yes, a flare. Like how Denard Span can get hits by flaring the ball over the shortstops head. Or how a reasonable power hitter like Pat Burrell will hit a flare that makes the left fielder come in a few steps for the out. But Jose Bautista is so locked in right now, and swinging with so much power, his flares are home runs.
The Twins have 6 home runs at Target field this year. Bautista has 5 in three games.
The Twins have hit 18 home runs all season. Bautista has 16, which is ahead of his 2010 pace, when he hit a league leading 54. A 2010 that everyone with sense assumed had to be a fluke to some degree. Most experts in predicting what “Joey Bats” would do for 2011, tried to find a middle ground in not minimizing Bautista’s amazing performance from 2010, but making sure not to jump on board for a repeat. They respectfully predicted a .250 batting average, with good plate discipline and perhaps 30 home runs.
Which is basically taking the average production of Bautista from 2004-August of 2009, and the Bautista from September 2009-2010. The first iteration had a strong sim score with Jim Hickman, who had a journeyman career with the Cubs, Mets and Dodgers in the 60’s and 70’s. Hickman played a couple positions, and displayed above average plate discipline, some power, and a .250 batting average. That was Bautista. Prior to 2010, he had received one season with 600 PA’s. He hit .254/.339/.414 for those 2007 Pirates, similar to his .235/.335/.420 2006, and his .238/.313/.405 2008. He did average 15 home runs during those years, so as a utility player with pop he wasn’t useless. In fact, he probably would have secured major league contracts for years to come.
But then on September 7th, 2009, Bautista apparently got tired of being a plus bat, minus field utility player. So, working with Blue Jays hitting coach Dwayne Murphy, Bautista began starting his swing earlier. He changed his hand position as well, but mostly he stopped swinging defensively, which was something he tended to do, according to scouts.
I don’t know, of course, but it seems like Bautista’s talent was always there, but he suffered from David Ortiz syndrome. The tragic illness present mostly in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, and Pittsburgh, that causes hitters with great power and great eyes at the plate to, “Hit the ball the other way” and to, “Grind out good at bats even if it means letting a meatball go by on 3-1.” But like Ortiz, Bautista found that loading up and being ready to hit the crap out of the ball, didn’t mean he had to swing. He hit 10 home runs from that point on in 111 at bats.
Then 2010 came along, and Bautista hit 54 homers, adjusting to pitchers as the year wore on and actually being more productive in the second half of the season. Even after pitchers had realized that, hey, this guy hit 24 home runs in the first half, we should probably notice, Bautista hits 30 in the second half in 38 fewer at bats with a better average OPB and SLG. But overall he did hit just .260 and all but one of his home runs went to left field.
Not content to be another Willie McCovey or Mike Schmidt, Bautista has this year decided to be Barry Bonds. Crazy, huh? But as it stands, Bautista’s current 277 OPS+ is better than the record set by Bonds in 2002 of 268. Better than Babe Ruth’s best of 255. Or Ted Williams best of 234, Jeff Bagwell’s 213, Albert Pujols’ 190, or Alex Rodriguez’s 176. Yes Bautista could let his OPS+ drop 100 points and equal A-Rod’s best offensive season ever.
And again, Bautista was considered a utility player prior to 2010. As in, someone who got into the lineup based on defensive versatility, and not offensive production. A guy that doesn’t hit well enough to be a regular player, but who could fill in for enough guys at other positions to get 400 plate appearances during a season. Guys such as Nick Punto, Aaron Miles, and John McDonald fit this mold. Those three players do not just change their swing and become the best hitter in baseball. Except that’s exactly what Jose Bautista has done.
But hey it’s mid-May. He won’t keep this up forever. And surely some team has figured out how to get him out. Surely he has some weakness.
Vs Lefties: .409/.552/1.045
Vs. Righties: .361/.508/.804
Home: .429/.571/1.095
Away: .338/.485/.714
Batting average on balls in play: .333, which is a bit above average, but not exactly Josh Hamilton’s 2010 (Bautista had a BABIP of .233 that year to Hamilton’s .390, all things equal who should have been MVP?)
Day games: .278/.418/.815
Night games: .446/.591/.877
His worst line against any opponent: Against Boston he holds a line of .217/.333/.391 with only one home run.
His best line against an opponent: Against the East leading Rays, Bautista is hitting .750/.846/2.250 with 3 home runs. Yes, that’s a slugging percentage at 2.250, which in layman’s terms means that on any given plate appearance, Bautista will, on average, end up about a quarter of the way between 2nd and 3rd base.
Against the Twins, he’s hitting .480/.581/1.360 with seven home runs.
Players go into slumps. What I’m wondering though, is if Bautista slumps mean he goes .250/.400/.500 for a week with two home runs. It remains to be seen, of course, but if Bautista maintains 80% of his current pace throughout the year, we’re in for a season only Ruth and Bonds could ever claim.
Which is pretty ridiculous.
P.S http://steroids-and-baseball.com/ READ IT.
Something Encouraging?
The Twins could not have played worse, nor endured worse fortune during the first month of the season. They were outscored by 60+ runs. That is far and away the worst differential in the majors. Morneau, Mauer, Young, Cuddyer, Valencia, Casilla, Thome whoever was playing 2nd, all TERRIBLE. Liriano has been dreadful, and even his no hitter was pretty pathetic as far as no hitters go.
Quietly, though, some players are really thriving. I am referring to Kubel, Span, Baker, Duensing, and Perkins. Only Duensing enjoyed a quality 2010 season, but like the other four, was a pretty big question mark going into 2011.
But now these past few games have actually been, what’s the word, encouraging? Not that anyone is really hitting, but the team has won three in a row, and this most recent game against Boston was almost, need another word here, exciting?
Trevor Plouffe comes up and homers in his first at bat. Did he get pissed at his poor spring and just start hacking? Maybe, and this is a long shot, he could be a spark plug. He ends up stealing a base, scores three runs, and takes a walk.
Scott Baker pitched a real gem, and now has a 2.97 ERA to go with his usual solid K/BB ratio. He’s still allowing home runs, but not as many hits, and he’s striking out more batters. He says he’s starting to feel healthy, could this be a big year for Bake? If so, he is a legit #2 starter.
Joe Nathan pitched a scoreless 9th, and has been much more stable since his move out of the closer’s role. A role Matt Capps has handled pretty well.
Most importantly, though, the team scored nine runs against a good team! Does success against a knuckleballer indicate success going forward? Eh, that’s a bit murky. But the fact remains, Liriano threw a no hitter, and the team has won the next two games. And scored nine runs in one. Young should come back soon, Mauer shortly after that (And he is after all, the team’s most stable bat when in the lineup). If Plouffe proves he belongs, and puts up fair power numbers with average defense, Liriano jumps off his performance against Chicago, Nathan and Morneau shake off the rust and become forces again (Not to previous levels, but maybe 80% of those levels), and perhaps Nishioka comes back All of a sudden this is a team to watch for as a bigtime comeback story.
Say what you will of Ron Gardenhire, no manager in the game gets his team on track better after bad stretches.
It’s not a tough division. The Indians are for real, but won’t maintain their current pace. The team with the most talent in the division currently sits behind the Twins in the standings. If the Tigers don’t take off, I would say 85 games could win this division.
A lot of things must go right for the Twins to reach that level. But a ton of things have had to go wrong for them to be where they are right now. Just wouldn’t put it past them, is all I’m saying.
Jottings. And Panic?
Hey everyone, guess what time it is! It’s time for…
Joe Mauer’s early season mystery injury!!
The aftermath of this slide oughta keep me out 5-7 games at least three times this year.
Looking back, there’s been:
The stress fracture! Some people claimed at the time that a stress fracture isn’t even possible.
The quad pull! An injury I’ve never seen come from anyone else’s quad.
The heel bruise! Seriously! Sprain an ankle, pull a hammy, something that other players can relate to!
And now Bilateral leg weakness!!
Seriously, Joe Mauer would never have to deal with skepticism over his durability if he actually managed to HAVE REAL INJURIES, and not ones that need to be scrupulously diagnosed by a misanthropic TV doctor.
Ive got it! All the Head & Shoulders he uses causes him to become a demon serial murderer every few months! Good thing this unrelated argument with Wilson has allowed me to see the truth.
In other news, our hometown team has gotten off to an awful start. A 4-8 record and a team slugging percentage under .300. Every player not named Kubel and Span has not stumbled out of the gates, but suffered a collective stroke while standing at the gates, and fallen on their collective faces in a pile of drool and shame.
In Spring Training, it was speculated that Alexi Casilla needed a good start to the season to get a good hold of his shortstop job. But can you really hate on the guy for batting .160 when what he’s been doing has been pretty standard throughout the lineup?
To be fair, most of the guys have gotten their batting averages over .200, which seemed like a novel goal a week ago. But as far as home runs are concerned, we have Valencia, Thome and Span with one apiece. That’s it. Did all the ‘adjusting to Target Field so we’re not going to hit home runs’ talk go to everyone’s head?*
*I do like that Morneau has five doubles, however. His results aren’t there, but his performance is above the threshold where we could say his head injury is causing him problems.
But the offense won’t suck forever. Young and Cuddyer are flawed hitters, but they’re going to OPS at least .780 between them. Not .500. Casilla might be bad, but he’s not OPS .368 bad.
It could be worse, in other words. Span seems to have solved his mechanical problems, and Kubel is avoiding his early season mailaise from years past. Carl Pavano has rebounded very nicely from his opening day massacre. Blackburn has been solid, Duensing hasn’t provided much to be worried about, and Baker hasn’t imploded (Though he hasn’t exactly been encouraging). Liriano is the one to be concerned with. Walking guys like crazy, then trying to not walk guys and getting lit up by Kansas City. It will be interesting, and perhaps pivotal, to see what he does in his next trip.
The bullpen has been pretty decent (Despite managing to blow two saves in one game today), considering it was supposed to be the glaring weak spot on the team. Everyone knows signing Dusty Hughes was dumb, but when he’s non tendered in a few weeks maybe we’ll get to see what Jim Hoey can do.
Now, looking around the league, there are some interesting tidbits to be found:
Well at least the fact that Im always injured hides that fact that I dont have any plate discipline and generate most of my power from playing in extreme hitters parks.
– Josh Hamilton and J.J. Hardy are fragile and should be handled with care. If I were the Rangers, I’d put Hamilton on the 60 DL, and activate him in September. Does past drug abuse contribute to having easily broken bones and easily pulled muscles? Probably not. But he is going to continue to get hurt, I will say that. My theory, not that anyone cares, is that players who get injured a lot are just worse at falling down than other players. Cal Ripken was really good at falling down. J.D. Drew probably isn’t. Jeff Francouer and Melky Cabrera are both really bad Royals players, and probably haven’t done their teams much of a service by being good at falling down and never getting hurt. Bob Sanders of the Indianapolis Colts is terrible at falling down. The man can’t avoid breaking something if you leave him unsupervised for ten minutes.
They say guys who get hurt just play harder than everyone else, they take more risks. I guess that’s probably true with Carlos Gomez. He puts his body in danger like he’s forgotten what gravity is. I seriously worry about him, sometimes. But I’m pretty sure most players play the game hard look at Francouer. Everyone in the game says no one plays harder. And he’s never on the DL. David Wright supposedly plays really hard; he’s rarely hurt.
You know that little kid back in elementary school who wanted to be a stunt man when he grew up? He would jump around doing crazy shit and would never get hurt? That kid grows up to be Randy Johnson, Orlando Cabrera, Jon Garland (Actually Jonny’s finally on the DL this year), Ichiro, Adam Dunn. The kid who’s constantly on crutches from falling off his bed, or landing awkwardly playing hop scotch? He grows up to be Howie Kendrick, or Larry Walker, or Marcus Giles, Chase Utley, Rafael Furcal, Aramis Ramirez.
Freak injuries do happen. A pitcher is going to burn his finger grilling steak this year and miss two starts. But if Howie Kendrick and O-Cab collide and both end up on the ground, I bet you 9 times out of 10, O-Cab wins.
Ya know its true.
The most interesting thing going on so far has been the 10-2 Rockies, and more specifically, Troy Tulowitzki. He’s slugging .909 so far with seven home runs, pretty much carrying the entire offense, similar to his performance last September. At this point, is there a more valuable player in the game? The man hits like a superstar first baseman while playing legitimately gold glove defense at shortstop. Although I’m kind of on the fence about his falling ability…
The Rays and the Red Sox are not playing good ball, but I like the Sox chances to rebound a lot better. They have depth at every position except catcher, and like the Twins, have pretty much every hitter starting out cold. When you have Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and J.D. Drew in your lineup on a daily basis, eventually the runs will come. If they, by some crazy circumstance, don’t come, at least you have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey to pick up the slack. And then Jon Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks for an extra layer of security.
If you’re the Rays, you have good starting pitching, but after that you’re looking at a lot of reliance on B.J Upton and Ben Zobrist to play to the potential they showed in one of their seasons, and Evan Longoria to handle everything else. John Jaso is good when he doesn’t have to be good. Same goes for Dan Johnson and Reid Brignac. Scoring runs is going to be a problem, and Desmond Jennings isn’t going to make it go away. And having Joel Peralta and Kyle Farnsworth holding down the fort isn’t a great idea, either. Jake McGee is a shiny alternative, but if you saw him try to throw breaking balls to Kubel and Valencia today, you’ll agree he’s not a shutdown closer yet.
Wait a minute. Thats Vernon Wells, not zombie Duke Snider... That Greek bastard lied to me.
A few things are going as expected. Namely that the Phillies won’t give up a lot of runs, and that the Rangers have a really deep offense. As far as surprises, I’d say the Orioles are a little better than what they’re given credit for. As I write this they have lost four in a row, but with Zach Britton looking like a potential phenom, and Brian Matusz on the mend, all of a sudden their offseason pickups of Guerrero, Reynolds, Lee and Hardy don’t look so frivolous and prospect blocking. I mean, offensively, where are their holes? Adam Jones still has potential, Markakis = Paul O’Neil?, Brian Roberts can still play, and Wieters might just bust out. Oh, and Luke Scott can OPS .900 without anyone noticing. Who the hell knows?
I also like the Blue Jays. Not much defense, but a powerful offense once their middle of the order guys (Lind, Hill, Encarnacion) start heating up. Yes, I am a Jose Bautista believer. And they have some pitching depth, as well. Not to mention payroll flexibility that was apprehended right out of Tony Reagins’ pocket.
Basically the whole AL East is worth watching, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays were the ones to finish 5th.
Two Seam Fastblog 