More Predictors

November 11, 2009 at 6:00 am Leave a comment

I will continue this pointless string of posts with my picks for this year’s award season in the National League. Let us commence.

NL Cy Young – I wasn’t sold on this one. I was about to say Carpenter, but then I checked the numbers to be sure, because I didn’t want my choice secretly influenced by wins and being on a playoff team. Carpenter, Wainwright, Linceceum and Vasquez are pretty balanced as far as how they rank in the more important categories. I narrowed my criteria to four categories, ERA+, FIP, xFIP and K/9. Wainwright doesn’t lead in any category, so I’ll put him aside. Vasquez leads in terms of xFIP, surprisingly. Carpenter has a decent lead in ERA+, at 185 to Lincecum’s 173. But Lincecum leads triumphantly in terms of FIP, at 2.37, way ahead of Vasquez at 2.80. Lincecum also leads in K/9. I think I have to go with Lincecum.

Vasquez would be my runner up, which I didn’t expect. He is second in FIP, first in xFIP, second in K/9, and last in ERA+, which is more indicative of him being unlucky. His peripherals were fantastic in other words, while his actual results were lagging behind the leaders. And this race should be as independent of luck and outside factors, such as fielding behind him, as possible.

Lincecum also smokes the ganj. That’s a win in my book. Now we have the first or second best pitcher in baseball, and the greatest olympian in history, as grass smokers. Nice. Although with Lincecum’s hair, did you ever doubt it?

NL MVP – Albert Pujols. Please. Looking at the guy’s career statistics on baseballreference is a fun activity for me. That’s how awesome he is. He’s so consistent from year to year that steroids should never be brought up with regards to him, further legitimizing his awesomeness. But this is about this year, and he actually had a better season offensively then Joe Mauer. And that was hard to do this year. I want to see a Cardinals game sometime in my lifetime; he’s a goddamn legend. The only other legend I can think of that’s currently playing in his prime is A-Rod, and he’s a bitch. Pujols FTW!

NL ROY – Let’s narrow this down a bit. You have Chris Coghlan, J.A Happ, and Tommy Hanson. Don’t give this to Happ; I know the Phillies made the World Series again, but don’t do it. His FIP was 4.13. His strikeout rate wasn’t very special. His BABIP was a decent amount lower than it should have been. He’s not as good as his pretty little 2.93 ERA. Coghlan had a very nice .321/.390/.460 line. His BABIP was high, but he obviously adjusted to major league pitching well, and did it in a pitcher’s park. Was Hanson better? His ERA was basically the same as Happ’s, but Hanson had the least playing time this season of the three candidates. He had a good strikeout rate (8.18), suppressed hits well (.226 avg) and his FIP was a very nice 3.50. Hanson was a little bit dominant. But I think to accurately determine who was better, given that one candidate is a pitcher and one an outfielder, you have to use something like WAR. Coghlan checks in at 2.3, as he was a bit of a liability in the field. Hanson is at 2.6. While Coghlan did it over a more sustained period, which should be taken into account, Hanson was worth more, and flashed dominance, so I have to go with him on this one.


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Predictions! Offseason Diatribe – Minnesota Twins

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